About The Macro Sentinel

The Macro Sentinel is the free Global Macro Dashboard for the people. Independent regime-aware research organized around a single thesis: the Repricing of Locality — the structural shift from a generic-access world (1991–2020) to a specific-access one. The data is open. The framework is open. The forecasts are scored on a public ledger.

What this site is

• A live dashboard. Seven regime pillars (Cycle, Energy, Reserves, Security, Dollar System, Money, Food) plus composite indices (Recession Ensemble, Global BCI, Credit-Cycle Melt-Up) plus published nowcasts (Inflation, Wage, INDPRO). Walk-forward z-scored. Updated nightly.
• Free regime research. Sanctions Watch, CBDC Tracker, Uncertainty Indices, Stablecoin Flows, Multi-Polar trade, Swap Lines, Recession Watch, Crypto Positioning, Fedspeak Hawkishness — all of it on the dashboard, no login.
• A bi-weekly Regime Letter. ~Twice a month, free to anyone who drops an email. Where each pillar sits, what shifted, what to watch.
• A published forecast ledger. Every nowcast prediction is logged against actuals. The track record is the product.

How it's different

• The data is free. No paywall on the dashboard, the indices, the research. We help the common investor read the regime; the data was always public, we just made it readable.
• Pre-registration discipline. Every model and forecast is declared before the data runs. Acceptance gates are fixed ex ante. Rejected proposals stay visible in the methodology page rather than being quietly deleted.
• Walk-forward everywhere. No look-ahead contamination. Pillar percentiles, composite z-scores, regime classifications are all computed on expanding-window history.
• Published code, public forecasts. The backend that produces the dashboard is the same code that produced the backtests. Forecasts are scored on the Calibration Ledger. One set of numbers.

Publication schedule

The Regime Letter publishes ~bi-weekly. Between letters, the dashboard updates nightly. An alert publishes when a pillar crosses a phase threshold.

What's not free (yet)

The portfolios that act on this regime read, the trade rationale, and the personal interpretation layer for each pillar are operator-side. They become a paid tier when the audience is big enough that we owe it back to readers in a more structured way. Until then: data is free, framework is free, the signal isn't.

Contact

Reply to any Regime Letter you receive. That's the channel.